 
Even a brief
closure at UC Berkeley after a major earthquake would mean economic
loss for the region
01
May 2000
By Kathleen
Maclay , Media Relations
Fact
sheet associated with this release
Charts
associated with this release
BERKELEY
-- If a major earthquake damaged the University of California,
Berkeley, even a brief closure of the campus would mean substantial
losses not only to the university but to the entire Bay Area,
according to a new report issued today (Monday, May 1).
The report
is part of a $750,000 study - the Disaster Resistant University
Initiative - commissioned by the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) and UC Berkeley. It was designed to help research
universities that may face a natural disaster to find ways to
protect their research, facilities and human life.
UC Berkeley
leads the nation's universities in seismic safety. Currently,
six major building retrofits are in progress, and four more
are scheduled for completion between 2001 and 2006. The Hayward
Fault passes next to or under several UC Berkeley structures.
"This report
makes clear that the efforts we have underway to protect life
safety on our campus are exceptional, but that there is more
to be done," said Chancellor Robert M. Berdahl. "The future
of the university and the well- being of the local and state
economy require that UC Berkeley not only survive a sizeable
earthquake, but that we are prepared to emerge from one ready
to resume teaching and research without major delay."
A research
team led by UC Berkeley professors Mary Comerio, John Quigley
and Vitelmo Bertero found that, in the event of a very rare
7.25 quake on the Hayward Fault, the closure of UC Berkeley
for one year would mean the loss during that period of nearly
9,000 jobs, $680 million in personal income and $861 million
in sales in Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties
combined.
UC Berkeley
benefits the regional economy most by supplying it with professional
graduates, the report said. Any extended campus closure likely
would mean the exodus of graduate students, researchers and
faculty.
Quigley,
an expert on state and local tax policies as well as on labor
markets, estimated that each UC Berkeley alumnus with a master's
degree contributes roughly $1 million to the state gross domestic
product and pays $100,000 in state taxes over the course of
his or her lifetime.
"Estimating
the toll is the first step toward reducing losses," according
the report, which paves the way for new standards in seismic
safety, loss reduction, business resumption and recovery at
research universities.
FEMA Director
James Lee Witt said UC Berkeley accomplished significant milestones
for itself and the nation's university systems with this report
and with the campus's implementation of the Disaster Resistant
University concept.
"There is
no question in my mind. With this effort under Chancellor Berdahl's
leadership at the university, we have taken a significant step
toward protecting the investment we all have in our colleges
and universities," said Witt.
The Disaster
Resistant University Initiative aims to develop disaster recovery
and business resumption plans first for UC Berkeley, which is
serving as the nation's model, and then for other universities
facing the threat of natural disasters including earthquakes,
floods, hurricanes and tornadoes.
To produce
the report, the researchers assessed financial, physical and
operational damage likely to result from earthquakes of three
different magnitudes.
For example,
they found that the campus, home to more than 40,000 students,
faculty and staff in more than 100 academic departments and
research units, has the highest number of science and engineering
graduate students of all institutions surveyed by the National
Science Foundation.
Since many
of these students remain in Northern California, including the
Silicon Valley, after graduation, "the next Silicon Valley"
could be lost to another state or region if the campus does
not prepare for a major quake, the report warned.
Depending
on the size of the quake, it could take months - even years
- for the campus to resume normal operations, the report said.
UC Berkeley
is not alone in either its vulnerability to a natural disaster
or in its need for preparation and planning. Tulane University,
the University of Miami, California State University-Northridge
and the University of North Dakota are among those universities
hit by natural disasters during the last decade.
"It isn't
just us," said Comerio, the report's principal investigator
and a UC Berkeley professor of architecture. "It's all of California
and much of the United States."
###
Fact
sheet associated with this release
Charts
associated with this release
Mary
Comerio's paper (PDF document, 2161K)
Mary
Comerio can be reached at (510) 642-2406.
John Quigley is at (510) 643-7411.
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